Loop flows forecast and analysis
More accurate cross border transmission capacities forecasting will increase the capacities available for commercial trading. That will also optimise the scope and the size of the planned loop flow prevention activities thus reducing the system operation costs.
Considering the energy security of Poland and power supply stability in Polish power system, IDEA is performing a project developing the possibility to forecast the loop flows. At the moment most of the nominal capacity of the interconnectors is for safety reasons reserved for the lop flows. The tool should enable to increase the trading power exchange thus more effective market operations by more accurate predictions leading to diminution of the estimated portion of the capacity for expected loop flows.
Moreover, it will allow TSOs to optimize an allocation of the planned workload of the energy sources, more adequate to their technical activation time, market regulation constrains and procedures like DACF that impose certain decisions depending on the estimated cross border flows.
To-date data science techniques are applied in this project.