Accounting for unpredictable nature of energy systems in outage cost calculation gives more realistic costs estimates, as well as ensures grid security in a volatile environment. Our estimation outage cost tools provide a direct value for TSOs and DSOs, but also supports decision makers in companies that need to take part in tenders for the constructions and maintenance proposals.
Power grids, both on transmission and distribution level, need a continuous maintenance activity (refurbishments, diagnostic testing, exchange of broken elements) and investments (construction and modernization of the infrastructure). Those activities require planned outages of the grid elements – not only those involved directly. As a result the number of electrical connections decreases and the loading of those remaining in operation increases. That in turn may lead to overloads and the need to perform redispatch or other remedial actions resulting in an increase of the total costs of electric energy production.
By combining probability distribution of energy system states and configurations (for example N-1) we can estimate expected outage cost, without making too many assumptions about the future. Knowledge of how the total costs of the operating the system depends on certain outages may change the operator’s approach to tendering processes (of both CAPEX and OPEX type).